Land valuation using public records and kriging: Implications for land versus property taxation in cities

We construct land values for each parcel in Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona, from 2000 through 2018 using a novel public dataset containing the universe of sales and records county. then compare residential constructed two classes source data, vacant under existing structures. Between 2012 2018, estimated developed parcels are, on average, 14% higher when due to plattage effects other unobserved factors. Growth rates are similar, facilitating use price indices trace valuations over time an accurate base year valuation. Dynamics between prices housing suggest hypothetical value tax revenues more pro-cyclical than property revenues, with elasticities 3.3 2.3 respect national house prices, respectively. By houses had recovered 96% pre-crisis (2007) values, but only 66%. These findings demonstrate risk dependence taxes versus base-period revenue-neutral tax.